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Russian air-defense system downed Azerbaijan plane, sources say

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  • Summary
  • Companies
  • Azerbaijan's preliminary thesis: Russia defences downed plane
  • At least 38 people were killed in Wednesday's crash
  • Plane was in an area where Russia has downed Ukrainian drones Kazakhstan says no conclusions yet from its investigation
  • Kremlin: Not proper to comment until investigation is finished

BAKU, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Russian air defences downed an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people, four sources with knowledge of the preliminary findings of Azerbaijan's investigation into the disaster told Reuters on Thursday.

Flight J2-8243 crashed on Wednesday in a ball of fire near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan after diverting from an area of southern Russia where Moscow has repeatedly used air defence systems against Ukrainian drone strikes.

The Embraer

(EMBR3.SA), opens new tab

passenger jet had flown from Azerbaijan's capital Baku to Grozny, in Russia's southern Chechnya region, before veering off hundreds of miles across the Caspian Sea.

It crashed on the opposite shore of the Caspian after what Russia's aviation watchdog said was an emergency that may have been caused by a bird strike.

Officials did not explain why it had crossed the sea. The nearest Russian airport on the plane's flight path, Makhachkala, was closed on Wednesday morning.

One of the Azerbaijani sources familiar with Azerbaijan's investigation into the crash told Reuters that preliminary results showed the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defence system. Its communications were paralysed by electronic warfare systems on the approach into Grozny, the source said.

"No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft," the source said.

Three other sources confirmed that the Azeri investigation had come to the same preliminary conclusion. Russia's Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

A U.S. official told Reuters on Thursday there were early indications a Russian anti-aircraft system may have struck the plane. Canada said it was deeply concerned by reports that Russian air defence may have struck the aircraft.

"We call on Russia to allow for an open and transparent investigation into the incident and to accept its findings," the Canadian foreign ministry said in a statement on X.

Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Qanat Bozymbaev said he could neither confirm nor deny the thesis that Russian air defences downed the plane.

Asked about the possibility that Russian air defences shot at the plane, the Kazakh transport prosecutor for the region where the plane came down said the investigation had yet to reach a firm conclusion.

Item 1 of 9 Plane crash, near Aktau, Kazakhstan, December 25, 2024. REUTERS/Azamat Sarsenbayev

[1/9]Plane crash, near Aktau, Kazakhstan, December 25, 2024. REUTERS/Azamat Sarsenbayev Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

The Kremlin, asked before the Reuters report about the idea that the aircraft had been shot at by Russian air defences, said it would be improper to comment until the inquiry was concluded.

"It is wrong to build hypotheses before the conclusions of the investigation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

WRECKAGE

Footage shot by passengers on the plane before it crashed showed oxygen masks down and people wearing life vests. Later footage showed bloodied and bruised passengers climbing out of the plane. There were 29 survivors.

Pictures of the plane wreckage showed what appeared to be shrapnel damage to the tail section of the plane.

Aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions said in an alert to airlines on Wednesday that footage of the wreckage and the circumstances around the air space in southwest Russia indicated the possibility that the airliner was hit by some form of anti-aircraft fire.

Ukrainian military drones have repeatedly targeted Russia's southern regions in recent months, triggering Russian air defences. Russia and Ukraine have been at war since Moscow's invasion of its neighbour in February 2022.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Russian Defence Ministry had reported the downing of 59 Ukrainian drones over several regions.

Some were reportedly shot down in closed air space over regions bordering Ukraine, including the Sea of Azov. Flight operations were reportedly temporarily suspended at Russia’s Kazan Airport due to the activity.

In addition, publicly available ADS-B flight tracking data shows that the Azerbaijani aircraft experienced GPS jamming throughout its flight over southwest Russia, the alert said.

Russia uses advanced electronic jamming equipment to confuse Ukrainian drone location and communication systems and a large number of air defence systems have been deployed to shoot down the drones.

The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here.

Reporting by Nailia Bagirova in Baku and Gleb Stolyarov in Tbilisi; Additional reporting by Tamara Vaal in Astana, Joanna Plucinska, Filipp Lebedev in London; writing by Felix Light, Angus MacSwan, Guy Faulconbridge and Alistair Bell; editing by Andrew Heavens, Mark Heinrich and Howard Goller

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Kazakhstan plane crash: Expert explains how Russians may have downed aircraft

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Russians may have struck the Embraer 190 aircraft of AZAL Airlines, which crashed in Kazakhstan, using a Pantsir air defense system. These missile and artillery systems were recently deployed to Chechnya, said aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap in a comment to RBC-Ukraine's YouTube channel.

"Well, it definitely wasn't birds. I noticed two different sizes (of impact holes - ed.). Most likely, these are missiles from the Pantsir system. However, the Pantsir is a missile and artillery system, capable of striking with both. It seems to me that it struck with both types of weapons in this case," the expert stated.

He recalled that just days before the plane crash, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, requested the Pantsir air defense system from Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Kryvolap, these systems were stationed near the airfield in Grozny, from where the plane was downed.

The expert noted that the Pantsir system also has an automatic target engagement mode. While the operator can adjust it, this requires practice to ensure smooth coordination.

"There is also an automatic mode designed for situations where multiple targets are approaching from different directions. The operator can intervene to prioritize the most significant target. Essentially, yes, (the system decides what to engage on its own - ed.), but the operator can override it. However, proper training is needed to establish effective coordination between the machine and the operator. In this case, there wasn’t enough time for such training. Whatever was pressed, was pressed; whatever was hit, was hit," Kryvolap explained.

Airplane crash in Kazakhstan

On December 25, an Embraer 190 passenger plane of AZAL Airlines crashed in Kazakhstan. There were 67 people on board. According to the latest information, 38 people died in the crash.

The Azerbaijani airplane was flying from Baku to Grozny. It is reported that in Grozny, where drones had been shot down before, the plane was shot down, so it was unable to land. As a result, the Embraer 190 crashed near the city of Aktau.

Initially, it was claimed that the plane crashed because of a collision with a flock of birds. However, the remains of the plane were shown online, with traces of anti-aircraft missile debris on the body.

According to Euronews, Azerbaijan has confirmed that the plane crash was caused by a Russian missile.

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Russian air defense AI system linked to Azerbaijani plane crash

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Russian air defence or bird strike: What caused Azerbaijan Airlines flight to crash?

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azerbaijan plane crashes, kazakhastanA drone view shows emergency specialists working at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan December 25, 2024. (Reuters)

A plane crash near Kazakhstan’s Aktau city, which killed 38 passengers on board, was likely caused by Russian anti-aircraft system, the Wall Street Journal has reported. Authorities in Russia and Azerbaijan, however, have offered different reasons for what may have led to the crash, citing preliminary investigations.

The WSJ report cites an alert to airlines by UK-based independent aviation security firm, Osprey Flight Solutions, which states that the flight “was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defence system.” The chief intelligence officer of the firm was also quoted stating the same in an interview. “Video of the wreckage and the circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia indicates the possibility the aircraft was hit by some form of antiaircraft fire,” said Matt Borie.

The Azerbaijan Airlines flight, carrying 62 passengers and five crew members, was en route to Grozny in Russia from Baku, when it crashed near the Caspian Sea on Wednesday morning.

What happened with Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243? Here’s what we know so far

The Embraer 190 plane had diverted from its planned course to Russia and was attempting an emergency landing 3 kilometers from Aktau.

There are conflicting reports on what caused the plane to attempt an emergency landing.

What Azerbaijan says: President Ilham Aliyev has said that bad weather may have caused the flight to change its path. He added, however, that it was too soon to speculate and an investigation into the matter was underway. Officials said that the black box which records flight data has been recovered and may provide some clues into the incident.

What Russia says: The country’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary investigation showed that a bird strike may have caused the plane to attempt an emergency landing. However, experts cited by news agency Reuters have cast doubts over this theory. The report states that while collision with birds can cause the pilot to lose control of the plane, it is unlikely to go “wildly off course”.

What Ukraine says: Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian national security official, blamed Russia for the crash in a post on social media platform X. “This morning, an Embraer 190 aircraft of an Azerbaijani airline, flying from Baku to Grozny, was shot down by a Russian air defense system. However, admitting this is inconvenient for everyone, so efforts will be made to cover it up, even the holes in the remaining parts of the aircraft,” he wrote.

azerbaijan plane crashes A drone view shows emergency specialists working at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan December 25, 2024. (Reuters)

The WSJ report cites experts stating that the “perforations in the plane’s tail section” suggest that the crash could have been a result of a “possible missile attack or the work of air defenses”.

Footage circulating on social media and verified by news agencies shows the plane in a steep descent before engulfing into flames as it crashes onto the ground. Another video shows injured survivors being helped out of the wreckage.

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Reports have also indicated that there were drone strikes in two regions next to Chechnya, where Grozny is located, on Wednesday morning.

— with inputs from Wall Street Journal, Reuters and AP

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Federal judge dashes sex cult leader Keith Raniere’s latest bid for new trial

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Keith Raniere, who's serving a 120-year sentence, tried to "manufacture new evidence ... to receive a second bite of the apple," a federal judge wrote.

BROOKLYN (CN) — The ex-leader of an upstate New York cult who branded women he kept as sex "slaves" lost his fourth attempt for a new trial after a federal judge denied his motion claiming federal agents tried to frame him for child pornography.

Keith Raniere billed NXIVM, pronounced "Nexium," as a self-help group, but the organization was shut down in 2018 after its leaders were arrested for operating a secret inner sex ring called DOS or “The Vow.” Women brought into the cult were forced to have sex with Raniere and branded with his initials along their pubic lines, according to trial testimony.

During a six-week trial, witnesses detailed sexual abuse, control and manipulation at the hands of Raniere. He was sentenced to 120 years of prison after being convicted on all seven counts, which included sex trafficking, forced labor and wire fraud. The fraud charge alone included 11 racketeering acts, among them creation and possession of child pornography, conspiracy to commit identity theft and extortion.

In Raniere’s latest motion for a new trial, he claims prosecutors fabricated “files, timestamps, folders and metadata” associated with nude pictures from 2005 of a 15-year-old DOS member named Camila.

He says he didn’t have enough time to examine the metadata evidence before and during trial and claims the government fudged the dates of the images and planted it on his computer.  

But to constitute a new trial, Raniere must prove he has come into new evidence that couldn't have been discovered before or after the trial, and he had been aware of the metadata evidence in the leadup to and during trial, U.S. District Judge Nicholas Garaufis said in an order Monday.

“Mr. Raniere ultimately seeks to have a new trial to challenge evidence that he previously stated he was ready to challenge, that he had the opportunity to challenge, and that he did in fact challenge during his trial,” Garaufis said in his decision.

“The jury found him guilty of the predicate acts at issue so he now attempts to manufacture ‘new evidence’ he argues would lead to his acquittal to receive a second bite at the apple.”

The Bill Clinton appointee added that the government offered to push back the trial date so Raniere could have more time to examine additional evidence related to his child pornography and exploitation charges, including the metadata evidence.

Garaufis quashed Raniere's argument that it was impossible to discover certain evidence, like details of the metadata’s chain of custody, which wasn't included in the government’s evidence and which Raniere claims would have revealed at trial that the government was “tampering” with the data.

“Raniere seeks to circumvent his defense’s ability to inspect and challenge the photographs’ metadata by distinguishing the evidence his defense reviewed from other pieces of evidence… which, to be clear, his defense was also aware of during trial,” Garaufis added.

The motion also failed, the judge said, because Raniere failed to demonstrate that the purported new evidence would result in his acquittal, "or otherwise demonstrate that a new trial is necessary to prevent a manifest injustice.”

Joseph Tully, Raniere's attorney, disagreed with the judge's ruling and said Raniere's defense team provided enough evidence to show the government tampered with the photographs in evidence.

"The judge’s decision here greenlights any prosecutor or corrupt FBI agent to use AI to manufacture false digital evidence, introduce it in the last 3 days of a long trial, allow them to mislabel the evidence so the defense doesn’t know it’s new, and unless the defense can catch the tampering before the end of the trial, no one will ever care that the government cheated to get a conviction. This is an impossible task," Tully, of Tully & Weiss in Martinez, California, said in a statement.

The Second Circuit previously rejected Raniere’s appeal to overturn his conviction.

“[Raniere] principally argues that to qualify as a ‘commercial sex act,’ there must be a monetary or financial component to the ‘thing of value’ that is given or received, and the sexual exploitation must be for profit. We conclude that the statute has no such requirement,” U.S. Circuit Judge Jose A. Cabranes wrote in a 2022 decision for the three-judge panel.

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FBI Agent Accused of Evidence Tampering in NXIVM Case Faces More Misconduct Allegations in OneTaste Case

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I received this email from New York’s most influential publicist. I reprint it here in full.

By Juda Englemayer

OneTaste’s Nicole Daedone and Rachel Cherwitz are set to face trial on January 13th in the Eastern District of New York. The charge is a single count of conspiracy to commit forced labor. But this case, the indictment, and the prosecution’s narrative can be summarized succinctly in the immortal words of Vinny Gambino: “Everything that guy just said is bullshit… Thank you.”

Unlike Hollywood, where fiction often serves as entertainment, this case appears to blur the lines between the two.

Alarmingly, the charges were constructed with input from a producer of the Netflix film Orgasm Inc., which relied heavily on fraudulent journals authored by the Government’s star witness, Ayries Blanck. Even more troubling, these same fabricated journals are being used as key evidence in the trial.

Yesterday, Valerie Bauman, an investigative reporter at Newsweek, published a piece on NXIVM and Keith Raniere’s case, highlighting allegations that FBI agents planted evidence to secure Raniere’s conviction.

While this issue isn’t new—Raniere and his legal team have repeatedly tried to expose it to the EDNY judge and prosecutors —Ms. Bauman neglected to mention a critical fact. The FBI agent accused of tampering with evidence in Raniere’s case is none other than Elliot McGinnis.

McGinnis, the same agent involved in OneTaste’s case, has been accused of:

  • Concealing evidence.
  • Instructing a witness to delete an entire email and social media account.
  • Directing a witness to park evidence in his hands to avoid turning it over to the defense.
  • Using his personal email to collaborate on the very Google Doc journal containing fabricated entries being presented as evidence.

The parallels between these matters show a troubling pattern of misconduct. I have evidence for both NXIVM and OneTaste that McGinnis is a rogue agent, and I can demonstrate that the prosecutors are aware of these issues, yet remain determined to push forward. Equally concerning, the presiding judge—on only her second case—has declined to act on clear, well-documented malfeasance.

This trial should not proceed under these conditions. I urge you to examine this matter closely and consider investigating further. Justice demands scrutiny, and the media’s voice could shed light on a deeply flawed process.

Frank Report has covered the alleged tampering of evidence involving Elliot McGinnis i the NXIVM case for several years.

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